The World does not lack climate promises. What remains in short supply is the political will, financial resources and institutional resolve to turn them into measurable results. Rising temperatures, intensifying floods, prolonged droughts, melting glaciers and mounting pressure on ecosystems have made the consequences of climate change increasingly difficult to ignore. Yet global emissions are still rising, fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions reached a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, while the global average surface temperature was 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels. Against this backdrop, Antalya, Türkiye, will host the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) from 9 to 20 November 2026. More than a decade after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the summit arrives at a critical juncture for international climate diplomacy. The central question is no longer whether governments recognise the urgency of climate change, but whether they can translate commitments into policies, investments and outcomes at the scale science demands.

The idea of an “Implementation COP” captures this urgency. Although the phrase represents an aspiration rather than a guaranteed outcome, it reflects a growing demand for negotiations to move beyond declarations and demonstrate tangible progress. Antalya will be judged not by the ambition of its announcements, but by whether it helps close the gap between political commitments and practical delivery. The summit will also be distinctive in its leadership arrangements. Türkiye will host the conference, with Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum serving as COP31 President. Australia will serve as President of Negotiations, with Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen leading the formal negotiating track under the Türkiye - Australia partnership. This arrangement brings together countries with different economic interests and climate challenges, while creating an opportunity to give greater prominence to the concerns of vulnerable nations. For Pacific Island countries, climate change is already an existential concern. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion and increasingly severe weather threaten settlements, livelihoods and cultural heritage. Their circumstances expose a fundamental inequity, countries that have contributed relatively little to cumulative greenhouse-gas emissions often face some of its most severe consequences.
Australia’s engagement with Pacific neighbours could strengthen the focus on adaptation, climate finance and the protection of vulnerable communities. But its value will depend on whether these concerns shape negotiated outcomes rather than remain confined to diplomatic statements. Türkiye, meanwhile, must ensure that the conference produces a credible action agenda and sustains cooperation among countries whose priorities frequently diverge. Finance will be central to that test. Developing countries need substantial and predictable resources to expand clean energy, modernise infrastructure, protect ecosystems and prepare for climate-related disasters. Many face these demands while contending with limited public revenues, expensive borrowing and mounting development pressures.
At COP29 in Baku in 2024, countries agreed on a new climate-finance goal under which developed countries would take the lead in mobilising at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035. The agreement also called on all participants to work together to scale up climate finance from public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. These figures represent different levels of ambition. The $300 billion goal concerns finance led by developed countries, the $1.3 trillion figure is a broader mobilisation ambition involving multiple sources. Neither should be mistaken for a commitment to provide the entire larger sum as direct public grants. The challenge is to establish how these resources will be mobilised, how responsibilities will be shared and whether vulnerable countries will be able to access the funding they need. The Baku-to-Belem Roadmap to $1.3 Trillion provides a framework for advancing this discussion, but its significance will depend on whether it produces credible financial flows rather than another distant target. The quality of climate finance matters as much as its quantity. Loans can support productive investments, but excessive reliance on debt can deepen the economic vulnerabilities of countries already struggling with climate-related losses. For nations facing repeated floods, droughts or coastal damage, the cost of adaptation cannot be indefinitely postponed while financial burdens accumulate. The gap is especially stark for adaptation. The UN Environment Programme estimates that developing countries will need $310 billion to $365 billion annually by 2035 for adaptation, while international public adaptation finance flows to developing countries were only $26 billion in 2023, down from $28 billion the previous year. Needs are therefore 12 to 14 times current flows. Antalya must therefore sustain pressure for predictable, accessible and equitable financing, particularly for adaptation and the countries most exposed to climate risks. Without progress on this front, the promise of implementation will remain constrained by the absence of resources required to deliver it. Equally difficult is the question of fossil fuels. Coal, oil and natural gas remain embedded in global energy systems, industrial production and public finances, yet their combustion is a principal driver of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions. The pace of the transition away from fossil fuels will remain a defining measure of climate ambition.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed to contribute to global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action during this critical decade. Translating that commitment into national policy has proved difficult, as governments balance emissions reduction with energy security, economic growth and employment. A credible transition requires more than declarations. It demands sustained investment in renewable energy, modern electricity grids, energy storage, efficient buildings and cleaner transport, alongside measures to support workers and communities dependent on carbon-intensive industries. Countries must also ensure that the transition does not deepen inequalities or leave developing economies without affordable alternatives. (To Be Continued)

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