Analysis

In its annual report 2025, Islamabad based Center for Research and Security Studies [CRSS] has observed that “2025 turned out to be the deadliest year for outlaws in a decade, as they suffered their highest fatalities since 2015, and surged by over 120% this year compared to 2024. Similarly, in its Pakistan Security Report 2025, Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies [PIPS] has noted that “In 2025, a combined total of 1,313 militants were killed, as compared to 639 during the year before.”
That it’s for the first time since 2015 that the combined loss of lives suffered by security force members and civilians during the year just gone by didn’t account for the majority of the fatalities is indeed good news for Pakistan army’s newly appointed Chief of Defence Forces [CDF] Field Marshal Asim Munir. Yet, there’s hardly any reason to rejoice since the overall picture is extremely bleak.
The bad news is that the PIPS report reveals that “Pakistan witnessed a sharp surge in militant violence in 2025, with 699 terrorist attacks recorded countrywide – an increase of 34% compared to the previous year. This renewed wave of violence claimed at least 1,034 lives, marking a 21% rise in terrorism related fatalities.” The alarming fact is that out of 699 militant attacks recorded in 2025, a whopping 454 such incidents were the handiwork of “religiously motivated groups” [mainly Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP] as against 335 such attacks in 2024.
The PIPS report further reveals that “Ethnic, or sub-nationalist, militant violence – driven largely by Baloch armed groups – intensified over the year. Apart from five attacks attributed to the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army in Sindh, Baloch insurgent groups were responsible for 229 attacks, including 225 in Balochistan and four in interior Sindh and Karachi.” While this escalation is worrisome, the finding that “Taken together, attacks by Baloch and Sindhi insurgent groups totaled 234 in 2025, up from 175 in 2024, is particularly disturbing.

Some other disconcerting facts contained in the PIPS report:
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [KP], the number of terrorist incidents increased by 40%, while fatalities rose by 14% as compared to 2024.
In Balochistan, attacks by insurgent groups rose by over 30% year-on-year, accounting for 225 incidents in 2025, causing 338 fatalities and 462 injuries.
While Sindh province experienced 12 terrorist attacks in 2024, the number of such attacks in 2025 jumped to 21- a substantial 75 percent increase.
In 2025, militant outfits simultaneously sought to consolidate territorial control while expanding operational reach across multiple regions. TTP and its affiliates have regrouped and re-established networks in many KP districts. Initially concentrated in the Southern districts, their presence has now expanded to nearly all districts of the province.
Similarly, while the Southern and Southwestern districts of Balochistan have long been epicenters of Baloch insurgency, during 2025, Baloch freedom fighters have increasingly expanded operations into central districts such as Kalat, Bolan, Kachi and Harnai.



Evaluation

While the PIPS report has mellowed down the tone and tenor of its observations on the Pakistan army’s humongous failings, it nevertheless deserves appreciation for upholding the professional ethics that it expounds by enumerating the same. Some of the observations and suggestions in the report regarding KP include:
TTP and its affiliates have maintained operational momentum, with periodic high impact incidents underscoring their lethality. It also notes that “local resistance against major military operations, which could displace the local population, is also visible in former FATA regions.”
The report further observes that “these sensitivities were sharply exposed by the suspected drone strikes causing casualties among civilians.” In a scathing indictment of indiscriminate use of drones by the Pakistan army, the report mentions that “Technology should be used smartly and sparingly. Anti-drone systems, thermal sights, and surveillance tools are necessary, but they must be matched with training, maintenance, and clear rules of engagement to avoid civilian harm and political backlash.
In a veiled reference to the army’s absolute control over counter-militancy efforts, the report states, “Without clear federal– provincial alignment on whether dialogue or force should lead counterterrorism efforts, Pakistan continues to lack a coherent and unified strategy to counter militancy in KP.”
By mentioning that “Border management must be treated as a sustained priority rather than an episodic response,” the report has unambiguously called out Pakistan army’s major failing in effectively dominating the Durand Line.
In an obvious reference to the Pakistan army’s highhanded approach during counter-militant operations, the report highlights that “Any displacement, search operations, or use of force must be accompanied by transparency, compensation, and visible service delivery to prevent resentment from turning into resistance.
Most importantly, the PIPS report disagrees with CDF Munir’s use of strong arm tactics against Afghanistan by noting that “Pakistan’s own border management strategy needs continued investment and restraint.” It states, “Pakistan should prioritize defensive dominance - surveillance, intelligence led interdictions, and rapid response - over punitive actions that deepen Afghan sensitivities and international scrutiny.
In April last year, while speaking about the threat from armed Baloch groups, Field Marshal Munir had boastfully declared that "We will beat the hell out of these terrorists very soon" giving the impression that they were inconsequential. However, the PIPS report belies his claim by mentioning that “Over the years, the insurgency [in Balochistan] has transitioned from a peripheral security challenge to a sustained, multi-faceted campaign that tests the state’s military and political responses.”
By stating that “The enhanced operational capacity of Baloch insurgent groups, combined with growing local sympathy in certain areas, poses a serious and multidimensional challenge for the government and security agencies,” the report also makes it clear that armed Baloch groups are no pushovers. It provides evidence to support this assertion by noting that the Baloch Republican Guards “operations near the Sindh border and claims of attacks in Shikarpur, and the noted insurgent recruitment outreach into Karachi and Sindh, signal a deliberate attempt to project the conflict beyond historical fault lines.”
Elaborating on its changing character, the PIPS report trashes Rawalpindi’s allegation of armed Baloch groups being sponsored by New Delhi by stating, “The Baloch insurgency increasingly draws from an educated, middle-class milieu that transcends traditional tribal mobilisation. This shift erodes earlier assumptions that Baloch militancy was principally a product of tribal patronage patterns; instead, grievances about economic marginalization, perceived governance deficits, and elite capture now resonate with urbanized cohorts and diaspora networks.”
Two decades ago, Gen Pervez Musharraf had also warned armed Baloch groups by saying that “This time you won’t even know what hit you,” but these freedom fighters endured repeated attempts by the army to decimate them. In 2017, the then Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa accepted that Balochistan “unfortunately had been neglected,” but his claim that “The military has contributed significantly to bring Balochistan into the mainstream” was a white lie. The fact is that by solely relying on use of brute force, Rawalpindi has only further alienated the Baloch people.
The PIPS report implies as much by observing that “Arrests and kinetic pressure can produce short-term security gains, yet without parallel efforts to restore legitimacy, service delivery, and grievance redress, military gains are likely to be temporary.” Most importantly, the report highlights the self-debilitating strategy of disappearing people that the Pakistani security forces and intelligence agencies indulge in as a matter of routine. It states, “The issue of enforced disappearances, often exploited by insurgents to gain support and recruits, must be addressed through a lawful and amicable policy to counter militant narratives effectively.”

Prognosis

Field Marshal Munir who has entered his fourth year in office repeatedly waxes eloquent about how the Pakistan army has pushed terrorists on the back foot. Unfortunately, statistics clearly indicate that terrorist attacks in Pakistan have increased consecutively for the last five years, which is a poor and embarrassing report card for the CDF.
The problem with Field Marshal Munir is his erroneous belief that armed opposition can be remedied through brute force alone, and that domestic anger against the army’s failure to rein-in these groups can be assuaged simply by blaming foreign powers [New Delhi and Kabul] for sponsoring them. So, he has christened armed Baloch groups Fitna al Hindustan. He also thinks that he can reduce TTP’s popularity amongst the people of KP by declaring it as an un-Islamic group and referring to it as Fitna al Khawarij.
The fact of the matter is that Field Marshal Munir has himself precipitated a humongous national crisis by his ill-considered decisions. While conducting airstrikes inside Afghanistan targeting alleged TTP facilities has failed to act as a deterrent, large scale loss of innocent civilians including women and children has only further enraged Kabul and effectively foreclosed the scope of resolving this problem through dialogue. It may well have also brought TTP closer to the Afghan Taliban.
Field Marshal Munir attempted to divert public attention from the mess that he had created by resurrecting the Two Nation Theory and citing existential incompatibility between Hindus and Muslims. That his hinduphobic remarks resulted in the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam massacre of tourists by Pakistani terrorists after they had been subjected to religious profiling, is definitely not a mere coincidence. New Delhi responded immediately by holding the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance and the onus of the far-reaching negative impact of this decision on Pakistan squarely lies on the CDF’s shoulders. So, while he may try to pacify Pakistanis by talking of bombing Indian dams, it's abundantly clear that India is in no mood to relent, and the international community in no position to influence New Delhi's decision.
Under Field Marshal Munir’s charge, the Pakistan army has turned KP and Balochistan into veritable killing fields with enforced disappearances as well as extra judicial killings at an all time high and this explains as to why 2025 saw terrorist casualties at an all time high in a decade. With the international community maintaining a stoic silence on atrocities being committed by the Pakistan army in the garb of anti-terrorist operations, there’s no pressure on the CDF to stop escalating violence levels against the people of KP and Balochistan.
With a pliable legislature, compromised judiciary and muzzled media Field Marshal Munir has become Pakistan’s de facto ruler and since he now enjoys lifelong immunity from legal persecution, he's answerable to none. So, when there’s nothing to stop this ego-driven juggernaut of violence from wreaking havoc, wouldn't it be fair to infer that things in Pakistan aren’t going to change for the better in the near future?

Email:----------------------------nileshkunwar.56@gmail.com